Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final April 2026: All-Time Record Low Confirmed Near 47.6 — Year-Ahead Inflation 4.8%; FOMC Now 4 Days Away

The University of Michigan's final Consumer Sentiment Survey for April 2026, released April 24 (last Friday of the month), confirmed the preliminary all-time record low near 47.6 — the first sub-50 reading since June 2022 and below the 1980 energy crisis nadir of 51.7. Year-ahead inflation expectations held at 4.8% — the largest one-month jump in the survey's 70+ year history (from 3.8% in March). Long-run (5-year) inflation expectations also rose materially, a critical credibility signal for the Fed: if long-run expectations become 'unanchored,' the FOMC loses its most important anti-inflation tool. The Current Economic Conditions Index registered its worst reading in decades. Approximately 98% of preliminary surveys were collected before the April 7 ceasefire announcement; the final survey window captured some post-ceasefire optimism, but sentiment remained historically depressed as WTI crude pushed toward $97/barrel (Brent $107) and the Strait of Hormuz naval blockade remained in effect. The FOMC meets April 28-29 — just 4 days after this release — facing a consensus forecast to hold at 3.50–3.75% amid stagflation conditions (CPI 3.3%, Flash PMI input costs at 10-month high, Michigan at all-time record low). An all-time record low in consumer sentiment days before an FOMC meeting creates an unusually severe credibility test: cutting would validate inflation fears already embedded in expectations; holding risks accelerating the consumer confidence collapse.