Iranian FM Araghchi Flies to Pakistan for US-Iran Peace Talks; WTI Hits $97.37, Brent $107.10 — 18% Weekly Gain; S&P 500 Rebounds +0.3%

On April 24, 2026, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi flew to Islamabad, Pakistan for a meeting with Pakistani mediators — the first diplomatic movement since Iran's IRGC seized two commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on April 23 (also firing on a third). The talks represent an indirect channel, with Pakistan serving as a back-channel facilitator. Trump declined to give a timeline for any deal ('Don't rush me'). Defense Secretary Hegseth declared the full US naval blockade: 'No one sails from the Strait of Hormuz to anywhere in the world without permission of the United States Navy.' An additional US aircraft carrier was deploying to enforce the blockade. Despite the diplomatic opening, oil markets surged sharply: WTI crude rose 1.59% to $97.37/barrel and Brent crude rose 1.91% to $107.10/barrel — with both benchmarks posting approximately 18% weekly gains, reflecting the IEA-confirmed supply disruption of 10.1 million barrels per day (the largest recorded oil supply shock, exceeding 1973). The Brent $107/barrel price is the highest since the initial ceasefire breakdown and deepens the global stagflation trap ahead of the FOMC April 28-29 meeting: US CPI at 3.3% (gas +21.2% YoY in March), with April likely to show further energy acceleration. Equity markets decoupled from oil: S&P 500 rebounded +0.3% (Nasdaq +0.8%), boosted by diplomacy optimism and Intel earnings strength. Goldman Sachs US recession probability held at 30%; Moody's Analytics at 49%. Araghchi was expected to travel onward to Oman and Moscow after the Pakistan meetings.