Iran Seizes Ships in Strait of Hormuz, Trump Orders Navy to 'Shoot to Kill' Mine-Layers; Brent Near $100, S&P 500 Falls -0.26%

The US-Iran ceasefire (extended indefinitely by Trump on April 21) remained technically in place on April 23 but faced severe new strain as Iran's IRGC seized two commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and opened fire on a third. The US responded by seizing another Iranian-linked oil tanker in the Indian Ocean, and Trump ordered the US Navy to 'shoot and kill any boat' attempting to lay mines in the strait. Iran's President Pezeshkian blamed a US naval 'blockade' for stalled peace negotiations. The escalation pushed Brent crude toward $100/barrel, while WTI settled at approximately $93.31/barrel (intraday range: $92.33–$97.19) — down from $95.75 on April 21 but well above the April 17 crash low of $85.57. US equities pulled back from April 22's record-high territory: S&P 500 fell -0.26% (Nasdaq -0.45%, Dow -0.31%), while the Russell 2000 outperformed (+0.74%). American Airlines cut its 2026 full-year earnings guidance on the day, directly citing higher oil costs from the Iran conflict — an early indication of the war's corporate profit impact. The IEA April 2026 Oil Market Report had confirmed March 2026 saw 10.1 million barrels per day disrupted — the largest recorded oil supply shock in history, surpassing the 1973 Arab oil embargo (4.3 mbpd). Moody's Analytics held its US recession probability at 49%; Goldman Sachs at 30%. The Hormuz escalation deepens the Fed's stagflation trap: with CPI at 3.3%, core PCE at 3.06%, and energy re-accelerating ahead of the FOMC April 28-29 decision, both rate cuts (inflation still too high) and rate hikes (recession risk rising) are off the table.