Durable Goods Orders March 2026: Flat (0.0%) — Misses 1.1% Forecast; Transportation -5.4%; Q1 GDP Advance Estimate Due April 30

The US Census Bureau released its advance durable goods report for March 2026 on April 24: headline orders came in at 0.0% — sharply missing the +1.1% consensus forecast and following February's -1.4% revision to $315.5 billion (marking three consecutive months of weak-to-negative readings). Transportation equipment collapsed -5.4% month-over-month, driven by a -28.6% drop in aircraft and aircraft parts orders — a key signal of corporate capital spending hesitancy and airline sector stress from elevated oil prices ($97+ WTI). Excluding transportation, orders rose +0.8%, supported by primary metals and machinery, partially reflecting tariff-driven restocking under Section 232 metal tariffs (50% on steel/aluminum/copper). Core capital goods orders (non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft) — the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of business investment planning — provide the most FOMC-relevant signal: weakness here indicates firms are deferring investment amid tariff uncertainty, elevated borrowing costs (3.50–3.75% Fed funds), and the Iran war energy shock. Three consecutive months of weak durable goods data precede the Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate (due April 30; Atlanta Fed GDPNow: 1.24%, consensus 1.5–2.0%), and FOMC (April 28-29). If core capital goods confirm weakness, it strengthens the recession camp's argument even as Flash PMI manufacturing showed a 54.0 print — the divergence between sentiment/survey data and hard investment data is a key analytical debate heading into the FOMC.