Conference Board Consumer Confidence 91.8 — Expectations Index at 70.9 for 14th Consecutive Month Below Recession-Warning Threshold

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March 2026 came in at 91.8 (1985=100), marginally above February's 91.0 and slightly beating the Reuters consensus of 88.0. The Present Situation Index rose 4.6 points to 123.3, suggesting households found current conditions tolerable. However, the critical Expectations Index fell 1.7 points to 70.9 — remaining below the 80-point recession-warning threshold for the 14th consecutive month, a historically unprecedented streak associated with imminent recession. Consumers cited the $4.00+ national gasoline average (the first time since 2022) as the primary drag on the future outlook, alongside ongoing tariff-driven price increases. The 14-month streak below the 80-point threshold is one of the longest in the Conference Board's survey history. The Conference Board noted that 'consumers are increasingly pessimistic about the future, even as current conditions remain stable' — a bifurcation that historically precedes economic contraction by 6–12 months.