JPMorgan Raises US Recession Probability to 60%; CNN: 'A Recession Is Guaranteed — But When?'

CNN Business published an analysis titled 'A recession is guaranteed. But when?' on March 30, reflecting a growing Wall Street consensus that US recession had moved from tail risk to central scenario. J.P. Morgan raised its 12-month US recession probability to 60% — the highest of any major investment bank — while EY-Parthenon chief economist Greg Daco cited 40% probability and Allianz Global Investors estimated 35–40%. Three converging forces drove the outlook: (1) Iran-conflict oil shock pushing the national gasoline average above $4.00/gallon for the first time since 2022; (2) Section 122 tariff pass-through accelerating to US consumers, with the average US household facing an estimated $1,500 tariff tax in 2026; (3) rapidly deteriorating consumer sentiment (University of Michigan 53.3, a historically 2nd-percentile reading). The 10-year Treasury yield was approximately 4.35% on March 30 as bond markets continued to price out Fed rate cuts for 2026, reflecting the stagflation dynamic.