China PMI Returns to Expansion (50.4); Trump-Xi Beijing Summit Opens; Markets Rally on Iran Ceasefire Signals

Three major developments on March 31–April 1 offered cautious optimism amid the stagflation crisis: (1) China's NBS Manufacturing PMI returned to expansion at 50.4 for the first time since March 2025, though input prices surged to a 4-year high on Iran-conflict commodity costs; (2) President Trump opened his first China visit since 2017 in Beijing (March 31–April 2) for talks with President Xi focusing on agriculture purchases, rare earth concessions, and fentanyl enforcement — China's record $213.6 billion surplus and 21.8% export surge gave Beijing leverage; (3) April 1 markets rallied (S&P +0.7%, Brent crude fell to $98.79/barrel) on emerging Iran ceasefire signals, while the 10Y Treasury yield retreated from 4.46% to ~4.30%. Conference Board consumer confidence ticked up marginally to 91.8 in March but its Expectations Index remained at 70.9 — the 14th consecutive month below the 80-point recession-warning level.