China NBS Manufacturing PMI Jumps to 50.4 — First Expansion Since March 2025; Input Prices Surge to 4-Year High

China's official NBS Manufacturing PMI rose sharply to 50.4 in March 2026 — crossing the 50 expansion/contraction threshold for the first time since March 2025 and beating the Reuters consensus of 50.1. The reading rebounded from February's contractionary 49.0 in the largest single-month gain in a year. Sub-indices: output rose to 51.4 (from 49.6), new orders to 51.6 (from 48.6), and new export orders to 49.1 (from 45.0) — still contractionary but improving sharply. A critical warning signal came from input prices surging to 63.9 (from 54.8) — a four-year high — driven by crude oil and metals costs from the Iran-conflict energy shock. The NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI returned to expansion at 50.1 from 49.5. The private-sector S&P Global PMI was 50.8. While headline PMI expansion was positive, the input price surge signaled China's recovery was being accompanied by imported inflation — complicating the PBOC's dual mandate of growth support and deflation-fighting.