JPMorgan Raises Recession Odds to 60%; Liberation Day One-Year Retrospective Shows Tariff Policy Failed Its Own Metrics

J.P. Morgan raised its 12-month US recession probability to 60% — the highest of any major Wall Street firm — on March 30, as CNN Business declared recession was no longer a tail risk but a central scenario. EY-Parthenon was at 40%, Moody's at 48.6%. One week before Liberation Day's first anniversary (April 2), Bloomberg and the Tax Foundation published retrospectives concluding the tariff regime failed its own stated goals: the US trade deficit widened overall, US manufacturing shed 100,000 jobs since January 2025, tariff policy changed 50+ times in a year, and $166 billion in IEEPA tariff revenue faced legal jeopardy after the February 20 Supreme Court ruling. The stagflation trap deepened as the 10Y yield reached 4.46% (March 28), Michigan consumer sentiment hit 53.3, and the national gasoline average exceeded $4.00/gallon.