ISW: Putin Operating on Falsified Maps; Russian Losses Reach ~1,360,110 on Day 1,554; Moscow Air Defenses Reinforced

On May 28, 2026 — Day 1,554 of Russia's full-scale invasion — the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) published a major assessment concluding that Russian President Vladimir Putin has likely developed a fundamentally false perception of Russian military success. ISW assessed that Putin's high command is providing heavily exaggerated maps and reports of battlefield progress, causing Putin to believe that Russia's military goals remain achievable — an assessment ISW considers divorced from the actual frontline reality. Key ISW May 28 findings: (1) Russia is reinforcing air defenses around Moscow City in direct response to Ukraine's growing long-range drone campaign against Russia's deep rear, including the Voronezh airfield strike and Kaliningrad 'Operation Carpet' on May 27. (2) Russia is reportedly resorting to using civilian cover to protect military vehicles in rear areas — a potential war crime. (3) Sweden's pledge of 36 Gripen aircraft on May 28 will help Ukraine defend against Russian KAB guided glide bomb attacks that have devastated fixed Ukrainian positions throughout spring 2026. Ukraine's General Staff simultaneously reported total Russian combat losses since Feb 24, 2022 reached approximately 1,360,110 personnel as of May 28 — approximately +1,160 lost in the preceding 24 hours. Monthly losses in April 2026 (35,203 eliminated) represented the sixth consecutive month in which Russian losses exceeded recruitment capacity, according to Western assessments.