Bolsonaro takes his first-ever runoff lead over Lula in two independent Sept 10 polls

Two separately fielded polls published 10 September gave Flávio Bolsonaro his first numerical lead over President Lula in a simulated second-round runoff. PoderData/Aya (3,000 respondents, fieldwork 6-9 Sep, ±1.8 points) put Bolsonaro ahead 47%-45%, its widest gap of the campaign; first-round numbers had Lula 38%, Bolsonaro 36%, Augusto Cury 10%. AtlasIntel/Bloomberg (5,000 respondents, fieldwork 4-9 Sep, ±1 point) put Bolsonaro at 46.4% to Lula's 46.2% — a 0.2-point gap inside the margin of error, but the first time AtlasIntel's Bloomberg-commissioned series had shown Bolsonaro ahead since polling began for the 2026 cycle, after Lula led 47.1%-42.6% in late August; AtlasIntel's first round had Lula 43.0%, Bolsonaro 37.4%. Both firms showed the runoff as a statistical toss-up, foreshadowing the split BTG Pactual/Nexus and Quaest/Globo surveys published four days later on 14 September. Brazil remains outside the Shield of the Americas coalition under Lula.