Brazil runoff polls split: Lula regains narrow edge in one survey, Bolsonaro leads in another

Two polls released 14 September on a potential Lula-Flávio Bolsonaro runoff showed the race statistically tied. A BTG Pactual/Nexus survey (2,003 respondents, 11-13 Sep) put Lula ahead 47%-46%, regaining a narrow edge after trailing 45%-46% a week earlier — his strongest showing since March. A separate Quaest/Globo poll (2,004 respondents, 10-13 Sep) put Bolsonaro numerically ahead 42%-40% for the first time in that survey. First-round tallies also diverged (BTG: Lula 42%-Bolsonaro 37%; Quaest: Lula 36%-Bolsonaro 31%), with an October 4 first round and an October 25 runoff if neither candidate exceeds 50%. Brazil remains outside the Shield of the Americas coalition under Lula, while Bolsonaro continues campaigning on extending Washington's terrorist-group framing to Brazilian gangs domestically if elected.