Carnegie and Chatham House: Iran War Threatens Vision 2030 as FDI Falls 60-70% in Q1 2026

Major think tanks published analyses around May 13 assessing the Iran war's damage to Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 economic diversification program. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Chatham House both estimated that FDI inflows into Saudi Arabia fell 60–70% year-on-year in Q1 2026 compared to Q1 2025, as investor confidence collapsed amid regional conflict, Hormuz disruptions, and elevated security risks. DW News questioned whether the Iran war had effectively destroyed the Vision 2030 mega-project model. Analysts noted Saudi Arabia was accelerating a 'westward reorientation' — shifting investment focus to Red Sea projects and the already-built NEOM Phase 1 — though Houthi maritime attacks posed a new constraint on Red Sea trade routes. The analyses acknowledged that Vision 2030 had achieved real gains in non-oil GDP share and tourism, but argued the Iran war had compressed the reform timeline and exposed the program's dependency on external investor confidence.