Analysts Warn JNIM Jihadism Spreading South Toward Gulf of Guinea

Security analysts and regional media issued warnings that JNIM's jihadist insurgency is migrating southward from the Sahel core toward coastal West Africa, placing the entire Gulf of Guinea at risk. JNIM has expanded active presence and recruitment into Benin, Togo, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Mauritania, and Senegal, primarily by exploiting Fulani ethnic networks and community grievances. The southward trend follows Guinea's March 23–24 crackdowns on domestic JNIM networks, and comes amid JNIM's consolidation of territorial control in western Mali and ongoing pressure on Bamako. Analysts note the group now exerts more influence across Mali than at any prior point in the 13-year insurgency.