Colombia Election 5 Days Away: CNC Poll Shows Near-Technical Tie (Cepeda 33.4% vs De la Espriella 30.9%); Peace Architecture at Stake as ELN Ceasefire Holds

With Colombia's May 31 first-round presidential election five days away, the latest CNC poll (conducted May 16-22) shows the race in a near-tie between Iván Cepeda (Historic Pact/left, 33.4%) and Abelardo De la Espriella (far-right, 30.9%) — within the margin of error. This contrasts sharply with the Invamer poll showing Cepeda leading at 44.6% vs. De la Espriella at 31.6%, and Guarumo at 37.1% vs. 27.5%. The sharp divergence between polling houses creates genuine uncertainty about who will qualify for the June 21 runoff. De la Espriella has surged approximately 10.5 percentage points since early May, a historically unusual late-campaign movement. The ELN's unilateral pre-election ceasefire remained nominally in force as of May 26, offering a degree of security calm in the final days. The peace-architecture stakes crystallize the election's national significance: a Cepeda presidency would resume ELN talks suspended since the January 2025 Catatumbo massacre, continue the JEP, and potentially re-engage FARC-EMC dissidents; a De la Espriella presidency would immediately terminate all peace negotiations; a Valencia presidency would pivot to military-first counterinsurgency while maintaining the JEP. Foreign Policy's May 22 analysis highlighted election-related violence risks from armed groups as a key concern in the final week. The Americas Quarterly noted that the conservative vote is effectively split between De la Espriella and Valencia, with neither positioned to take second place without the other's collapse.