US-Iran: Trump's 'Decision Day' Passes Without Signing; Iran Says Deal Not 'Imminent'; 14-Point MOU Framework Emerges Publicly; Oil Markets Price In Hormuz Reopening

May 25, 2026 — Trump's self-declared 'decision day' of May 24 on whether to resume military strikes against Iran or accept the draft framework passed without a formal deal announcement. Iran's foreign ministry characterized the state of talks as 'a degree of understanding' rather than an imminent agreement, and said no nuclear details are yet being negotiated. Trump posted that 'The Blockade will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed' — signaling he will not rush into what he termed a 'bad deal.' However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated publicly that 'significant progress' had been made, and NPR confirmed the two sides remain in active negotiation with a deal potentially days away. Axios published the most detailed account yet of the 14-point memorandum of understanding framework under discussion: Phase 1 would require the Strait of Hormuz to reopen within 30 days, with Iran permitted to freely sell oil and the US lifting the naval blockade; Phase 2 would be a 60-day window for nuclear program negotiations, sanctions relief sequencing, and unfreezing of Iranian assets. Key sticking points include Iran insisting the strait is 'already open' under international law and demanding Iranian supervisory authority; the US conditioning asset unfreezing on Hormuz reopening; and the sequencing of sanctions relief versus enrichment curtailment. Iran's 400–460 kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% — upgradeable to weapons-grade in 1–2 weeks — remains the central nuclear variable. CNN's live blog from May 25 confirmed oil prices are dropping as markets price in a near-term deal, providing an early economic signal of the diplomatic momentum. Trump also called the leaders of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, and Prime Minister Netanyahu — a broad outreach indicating efforts to finalize the framework and potentially link a deal to post-agreement Abraham Accords expansion. General Asim Munir of Pakistan continues as the principal intermediary. NPR analysis described the situation as 'a deal emerging, while war threats still loom' — the most accurate summary of the May 25 standoff.