Colombia Election 6 Days Out: De la Espriella Surges to 32.9%; First-Round Majority Unlikely; Runoff June 21 Virtually Certain — Peace Architecture Hangs on Result

Six days before Colombia's May 31 presidential election, the race has tightened significantly with a major late surge by far-right outsider Abelardo De la Espriella. The latest polling places De la Espriella at approximately 32.9%, up 4 points from late April, making him the principal challenger to left-wing Senator Iván Cepeda (Historic Pact), who leads the first round at approximately 44%. Center-right Paloma Valencia (Democratic Center/Uribista) has consolidated at 14–17%, down from earlier highs. With no candidate approaching the 50%+1 threshold required to win outright in the first round, a runoff on June 21 is now virtually certain. Runoff projections are split: Invamer shows Cepeda defeating Valencia 51.2% to 46.6%, while Guarumo/EcoAnalítica shows Valencia defeating Cepeda. If De la Espriella claims second place in the first round — which his surge makes plausible — he enters the June 21 runoff where consolidated right-wing voters could defeat Cepeda. The AS/COA Colombia Elects 2026 tracker, the most comprehensive English-language resource for the race, is tracking the final week of campaigning. The peace-process stakes remain the election's defining dimension: a Cepeda victory would resume ELN talks suspended since January 2025's Catatumbo massacre, potentially re-engage FARC-EMC dissidents, and continue the JEP; a Valencia presidency would pivot to military-first counterinsurgency; a De la Espriella presidency would immediately terminate all peace negotiations. The ELN's unilateral pre-election ceasefire is nominally holding. Crisis Group published its analysis 'Colombia's Polls Mark a Forking Path' assessing the election as the single largest peace-process electoral test globally in 2026. US Senator Moreno's May 21 warning about potential non-recognition of results has heightened political tensions in the final week.