Colombia Election 8 Days Out: Cepeda at 44.3%; Right-Wing Split May Hand Cepeda First Round but Runoff Outcome Uncertain — Peace Architecture at Stake

Eight days before Colombia's presidential election on May 31, 2026, new polling data published on May 23 deepened the uncertainty about the outcome and its implications for Colombia's peace architecture. A Noticias Caracol/Blu Radio poll placed left-wing Senator Iván Cepeda (Pacto Histórico) at 44.3% in the first round, right-wing Abelardo De la Espriella at 21.5%, and center-right Paloma Valencia at 19.8%. However, a separate poll from the May 18–21 period showed that in a direct Cepeda-Valencia runoff scenario, Valencia leads 44.6% to 41.5% — within margin of error, but suggesting that the right-wing vote could consolidate against Cepeda in a runoff. The AS/COA poll tracker placed Cepeda at 44% and De la Espriella at 27%, with the right-wing split between De la Espriella and Valencia as the critical variable determining whether the first round produces a majority. The City Paper Bogotá reported that Valencia 'doubles in race' — her numbers have grown from single digits to 20%+, making a three-candidate race increasingly competitive but not foreclosing Cepeda's path. The peace-process implications remain the election's defining stakes: a Cepeda presidency would resume ELN peace negotiations suspended since the January 2025 Catatumbo massacre and potentially re-engage FARC-EMC dissidents; a Valencia presidency would pursue a military-first approach while maintaining JEP processes; a De la Espriella presidency would immediately terminate all peace negotiations. The ELN's unilateral pre-election ceasefire declared February 2026 is nominally holding in most areas. US Senator Moreno's May 21 warning about potential non-recognition of results has heightened political tensions going into the final week.