Ukraine and Russia Both Souring on US Mediation; Zelensky Says Ukraine Is 'Waiting on U.S. and Russia' to Set Next Talks; Europe Weighs More Direct Role

As of May 22, 2026, both Ukraine and Russia have signaled disenchantment with the US-led peace mediation architecture, according to a May 20 Foreign Policy analysis and related reporting. Zelensky publicly stated on PBS that Ukraine is 'waiting on U.S. and Russia to set the next round of peace talks,' reflecting Kyiv's frustration that Washington has not re-established a structured negotiating format since the Istanbul talks collapsed in under two hours on May 16 — when Russia sent Medinsky instead of Putin and demanded Ukraine withdraw from all four annexed oblasts as a precondition. The only tangible output of Istanbul was agreement on a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner of war exchange; the first tranche of 205-for-205 was completed May 15. Russia's Foreign Ministry (May 19) signaled that Moscow 'expects peace negotiations to resume' and remains open to the Istanbul format — but this is assessed by analysts as a diplomatic posture rather than a concrete offer. Foreign Policy also notes that European leaders are weighing whether to take a more direct mediation role, with Zelensky in contact with European Council President António Costa about Europe building a parallel diplomatic track. The structural gaps remain: Russia demands recognition of its annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts; Ukraine refuses any territorial concessions without NATO-equivalent security guarantees. The full-scale war continues on a 1,000-km front with no ceasefire in force since the U.S.-brokered 72-hour pause expired May 11. Polymarket odds of a signed peace deal by June 30 remain at low probability. The Turkey-hosted Istanbul format — which also hosted Iran-EU3 nuclear talks on May 16 — remains the leading proposed venue for any future round.