Colombia Election 9 Days Out: US Senator Warns Washington May Not Recognize Results; Conflicting Polls Signal Runoff — Invamer Shows Cepeda 44.6%, Guarumo Shows De la Espriella Winning Runoff 43.6%–40%

Nine days before Colombia's presidential election on May 31, 2026, two major developments escalated the stakes for Colombia's peace architecture. First, US Senator Bernie Moreno on May 21 publicly warned that Washington might not recognize Colombia's election results if voter intimidation was documented in insecure zones — a reference to FARC-EMC and ELN armed presence in 185 municipalities rated at electoral violence risk by international monitors. President Gustavo Petro responded the same day via social media: 'This is a democracy, not servitude,' framing the US warning as foreign interference. The exchange reflected the broader US-Colombia political tension over the Trump administration's assessment of Petro's security and narcotics record. Second, two sharply conflicting polls published May 22 (Colombia One reporting) deepened the uncertainty: the Invamer poll shows leftist Senator Iván Cepeda (Pacto Histórico) at 44.6% first-round, De la Espriella at 31.6%, Valencia at 14% — suggesting Cepeda could approach but not guarantee a first-round majority. However, a Guarumo poll of the same period shows that in a direct Cepeda-De la Espriella runoff scenario, De la Espriella leads 43.6% to 40% — within margin of error but raising the prospect that Cepeda's first-round strength does not translate to runoff dominance. All three candidates held campaign events in Barranquilla on May 21–22. Foreign Policy's May 22 analysis assessed Colombia's election as a three-way test of whether voters prioritize negotiated peace (Cepeda), military security (Valencia), or confrontation with armed groups as criminal organizations (De la Espriella). A June 21 runoff remains the dominant scenario. The JEP's macro-case 01 — examining 6,402+ 'false positive' military extrajudicial killings — continues regardless of electoral outcome. The ELN's unilateral pre-election ceasefire (declared February 2026) is nominally holding but with violations near the Venezuela border in Arauca.