IMF Concludes Article IV Consultation, Forecasts 2.3% Growth Despite Shocks

The IMF Executive Board concluded its 2025 Article IV consultation with Moldova on February 27, 2026, projecting the economy would recover from multiple shocks — including the loss of Russian gas transit and regional conflict spillovers — with growth of 2.7% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, supported by a strong harvest, domestic demand, and substantial EU financing. The Fund flagged inflation, which National Bank of Moldova officials said would remain a major challenge, as the principal risk to the outlook, alongside continued exposure to energy-price shocks and regional security risk.