Moody's Issues Positive Hungary Outlook — EU Fund Inflows Expected Under New Government

On May 24, Moody's released a forecast stating that Hungary's credit ratings are supported by expectations of significantly improving EU relations under the Magyar government and anticipated inflows from both the Recovery and Resilience Facility (€10.4B) and the multi-annual financial framework (MFF). The agency noted that the new government's commitment to EPPO membership, anti-corruption reforms, and judicial independence aligned with the European Commission's conditionality milestones. Hungary's forint was trading near its strongest level in four years against the euro — approximately 366 HUF/EUR — as markets priced in the likelihood of a funds agreement. ING analysts projected the forint could stabilize at 355-360 if the Brussels deal is completed. GDP growth forecasts for Hungary were revised upward to 1.8-2.6% for 2026, contingent on EU fund disbursements. The Moody's assessment represented a significant shift from the agency's cautionary tone during the last years of the Orbán government.