US Q2 2026 GDP Advance Estimate: +1.5%, Below 2.1% Forecast

The Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance estimate put Q2 2026 real GDP growth at a 1.5% annualized rate, below the 2.1% consensus forecast though an acceleration from Q4 2025's 0.5% final estimate. Real consumer spending rose a solid 3.2%, driven by affluent-household services and durable-goods spending, while net trade subtracted 1.0 percentage point as imports stayed strong amid tariff-driven supply-chain adjustments, and inventory drawdowns cut a further 0.7 points. The miss versus consensus renewed growth concerns just as the Section 122/301 tariff transition took effect and ahead of the July jobs report.