FOMC Holds at 3.50-3.75% — Three Members Dissent in Favor of a Hike; Warsh Calls It a 'Good Family Fight'

The FOMC voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50-3.75% at its July 28-29 meeting, a non-SEP meeting with no updated dot plot. Three committee members dissented, preferring a rate hike — an unusually large hawkish dissent bloc reflecting the inflation scare from the July 23 oil shock and the still-hot May PCE print. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh described the internal disagreement as a 'good family fight' among policymakers and, when pressed on whether the decision amounted to a 'pause' rather than a genuine hold-versus-hike debate, said he would not characterize it that way. The post-meeting statement described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace amid elevated uncertainty tied in part to the Middle East conflict, with job gains keeping pace with the workforce and unemployment little changed.