Brent Crosses $100 After Houthi Tanker Attacks Off Saudi Arabia; Fed September Hike Odds Surge to 82%; Dow Falls 600+ Points

Brent crude jumped about 7% to close at $100.69/barrel on July 23 — its first close above $100 since late May — after Iran-backed Houthi militants said they struck two Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea, opening a new front alongside the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions and threatening the detour route Saudi Arabia had been using to keep barrels flowing. The attacks came hours after Trump warned the US would strike an Iranian bridge or power plant for every future Hormuz tanker attack, and Iran threatened retaliation against US-linked regional infrastructure. US gasoline averaged $4/gallon. The renewed geopolitical energy shock, combined with weekly jobless claims plunging to 187,000 (vs. 212,000 expected, the lowest since 1969), pushed fed funds futures to price roughly an 82% chance of a Fed hike at the September FOMC meeting — up more than 29 points from a week earlier — and a 38% chance of a hike at the following week's July 28-29 meeting (up from 12%). The 10-year Treasury yield rose to its highest level since January 2025. Equity markets sold off sharply: the Dow fell more than 600 points and the Nasdaq lost nearly 3%.