FOMC Holds at 3.50–3.75% — Jerome Powell's Final Scheduled Meeting as Fed Chair; Policy Unchanged for Third Consecutive Meeting Amid Stagflation Trap

The Federal Open Market Committee voted on April 29 to hold the federal funds rate target unchanged at **3.50–3.75%**, delivering the third consecutive pause after the January and March 2026 holds. The decision was unanimous and widely anticipated, with CME FedWatch showing 100% probability of a hold going into the meeting. **Powell's final meeting:** April 28-29 was almost certainly Jerome Powell's **last scheduled FOMC meeting as Federal Reserve Chair**. His term as Chair expires on May 15, 2026 — and Kevin Warsh was advancing through the Senate confirmation process simultaneously (Senate Banking Committee voted 13-11 on April 29 at 10:00 AM ET to advance his nomination). Powell's 2:30 PM ET press conference following the rate decision was his likely final formal policy communication as Chair, coming just hours after the historic committee vote. **Policy statement:** The FOMC statement acknowledged that the Iran war-driven energy price surge (Brent crude above $114 on April 29) was keeping inflation elevated and complicated the inflation outlook. The committee maintained its dual-mandate framing — acknowledging that elevated inflation and slowing growth present competing pressures on policy. **Stagflation trap confirmed:** With Michigan Consumer Sentiment at an all-time record low of 47.6, CPI at 3.3%, Conference Board Expectations Index still below the 80 recession threshold for the 15th consecutive month, and oil prices surging again on new Trump-Iran tensions, the April meeting crystallizes the Fed's impossible position: raising rates risks accelerating the growth slowdown; cutting rates risks re-igniting expectations of 4.8%+ inflation already embedded in household surveys. **Market reaction:** S&P 500 was down approximately 0.15% to ~7,128 as of midday April 29, with mega-cap hyperscalers (Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon — combined ~$11 trillion market cap, ~30% of S&P 500 by weight) down 1–2% ahead of after-close earnings. The FOMC hold was fully priced; markets were focused on the Warsh vote, oil spike, and tech earnings. **Recession probabilities:** Goldman Sachs 30%, JPMorgan 35%, Moody's Analytics 49%. J.P. Morgan base case: zero Fed rate cuts in 2026, possible hike Q3 2027.