Conference Board Consumer Confidence Rises Unexpectedly to 92.8 in April — Highest Reading of 2026; Expectations Index 72.2 (Still Below 80 Recession Threshold)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for April 2026 rose to **92.8** (1985=100), beating consensus expectations of approximately 89 and marking the highest reading since the Iran war began. The result provided a brief tailwind for markets on April 28, the first day of the FOMC meeting. **Components:** - **Present Situation Index:** 123.8 (down 0.3 pts from March) — reflects current assessments of business conditions and the labor market - **Expectations Index:** 72.2 (up 1.2 pts from March) — short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions **Important caveat:** The Expectations Index at 72.2 remains well below the **80-point threshold** that historically signals recession risk — this is now the **15th consecutive month** the Expectations Index has been below 80. Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, noted: 'Consumer confidence edged up despite material concern about rising gasoline prices as the war in the Middle East prompted a surge in Brent crude oil prices.' **Context:** The slight improvement contrasts sharply with the University of Michigan's Final April 2026 sentiment reading (confirmed 47.6 — all-time record low), illustrating the divergence between institutional and household-level consumer sentiment surveys. The Conference Board index skews toward current-period labor market conditions (Present Situation), while Michigan's survey captures consumer anxiety about future prices and conditions more acutely. **Macro implications for FOMC:** Even with the slight confidence improvement, the Conference Board noted ongoing gasoline price anxiety, in line with the Fed's stagflation dilemma. The data does nothing to change the near-certainty of a hold at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting (99.7%+ probability).