Brent Crude Surges to $114–116/bbl — Highest Since June 2022 — as Trump Issues New Iran Threats; WTI Tops $103; Energy Shock Deepens Stagflation Trap
Crude oil prices surged sharply on April 29, with Brent crude reaching **$114.37–$116.53 per barrel** (+4.74% on the day) — its highest level since June 2022 — as US President Trump issued new threats against Iran in connection with the Strait of Hormuz standoff. WTI crude climbed to approximately **$103/barrel**. **Trigger:** Trump's new statements threatening escalatory action against Iran if the Strait of Hormuz remained disrupted drove the oil spike on top of IRGC naval activity constraining tanker passage. The market re-priced the probability of a near-term Hormuz reopening significantly downward. **Macro consequences:** The oil surge arrives at the worst possible moment for global macroeconomics: - **FOMC April 29:** The Fed is meeting for its hold decision as oil spikes. Brent above $114 makes any suggestion of rate cuts in 2026 functionally impossible — higher energy costs feed directly into headline and core PCE inflation. - **March PCE (April 30 release):** With WTI averaging above $93 in March 2026 and Brent above $105, the PCE release tomorrow is expected to show inflation re-accelerating to 3.4–3.5% year-over-year. Today's oil surge further risks pushing April PCE even higher. - **Stagflation arithmetic:** At Brent $115, each $10/barrel oil increase adds approximately 0.4 percentage points to US headline CPI over 12 months. From the $85/barrel pre-Iran-war baseline (late February 2026), today's price implies approximately 1.2 percentage points of additional CPI pressure. **Context:** The Iran war energy shock has now pushed oil from roughly $85/bbl (late February 2026 pre-war) to $116/bbl — a 36% increase in two months. The IEA confirmed in March that the strait disruption represented the largest oil supply shock in history by volume, exceeding the 1973 Arab oil embargo. Energy prices remain the single most powerful transmission mechanism between the Iran conflict and the global recession risk trajectory.