Nasdaq 13-Day Winning Streak Ends — Longest Since 1992; S&P 500 Falls 0.24% as Oil Rebounds

US equity markets posted modest losses on April 20 as oil re-escalated and geopolitical uncertainty returned ahead of the critical FOMC April 29-30 decision. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.26% to 24,404.39 — snapping a 13-day winning streak, the longest since 1992 — while the S&P 500 declined 0.24% to 7,109.14. WTI crude oil surged approximately 5% to around $88–90/barrel as US-Iran tensions intensified and markets questioned whether the Strait of Hormuz was truly and sustainably open, partially reversing the April 17 oil crash. Brent crude climbed to $96.26/barrel. The Warren Buffett-favored CAPE (Shiller) ratio remained elevated at ~36–37, flashing valuation warnings with the S&P 500 trading at more than twice its historical average. Goldman Sachs maintained its US recession probability at 30%; Moody's Analytics at 49%; NY Fed yield curve model at 18.8%. Markets continued to price approximately 100% probability of a hold at the FOMC April 29-30 meeting. The Cleveland Fed nowcast estimated April headline CPI at approximately 3.58% — above March's 3.3% — as oil's partial reversal began to feed through.