Trump Signals US-Iran Deal Possible Before April 23 Deadline; S&P 500 Recovers +0.21% as Oil Climbs to $95

US equity markets recovered modestly on April 21, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.21% to 7,124.28 and the Dow rising approximately 0.52% at the open, as President Trump expressed optimism about reaching a renewed Iran ceasefire deal before the two-week truce's April 23 deadline. VP JD Vance was reportedly en route to Islamabad for diplomatic negotiations. WTI crude continued its post-April 17 recovery to approximately $95.75/barrel; Brent reached $96.32/barrel. The oil re-escalation from the April 17 crash low of $85.57 — now nearly fully reversed — materially erodes the inflation relief that had been expected to ease the FOMC's April 29-30 decision, with Goldman Sachs maintaining its peak CPI forecast at 3.5-4.0% in June 2026. The IEA's April 2026 Oil Market Report confirmed the Middle East conflict disrupted 10.1 million barrels per day in March 2026 — the largest recorded supply disruption in history, surpassing the 1973 Arab oil embargo's 4.3 mbpd and the 1980 Iran-Iraq war disruption of 5.6 mbpd. CME FedWatch showed approximately 94-99% probability of a hold at the FOMC April 29-30 meeting. Moody's Analytics held its US recession probability at 49%; Goldman Sachs at 30%; JPMorgan noted the economy is still avoiding recession but faces a 'large sentiment shock' as data deteriorates into mid-2026.