10 Days to FOMC Decision: Goolsbee Warns Stagflation Is 'Worst Case' for Central Banks; Rate Cuts May Slip to 2027

With exactly 10 days until the FOMC's April 29–30 meeting, the April 19 weekend brought intensified focus on the stagflation trap facing major central banks. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, at the Semafor World Economy 2026 conference (April 14), delivered the most explicit stagflation warning from any Fed official this cycle: rate cuts may need to be pushed to 2027 if the Iran war keeps energy prices elevated and inflation expectations high. Goolsbee called stagflation 'the worst situation for the central bank because raising rates doesn't solve it, cutting rates doesn't solve it, and staying the same doesn't solve it.' The FOMC is widely expected to hold at 3.50–3.75% on April 29, but guidance language is critical: oil's partial recovery from crash lows to $92–94 (from $85.57) reduces confidence that the energy shock is resolved. The ECB faces its April 30 rate decision with eurozone headline inflation at 2.3%, but markets have dramatically repriced — from pricing cuts to a possible hike to 2.5% by year-end as the Iran war stokes European energy inflation. Fed Chair Powell's term as Chair expires May 15 without a named successor, adding institutional uncertainty to the policy outlook. The dual FOMC/ECB decision window April 29–30 will be the most consequential synchronized central bank event since the 2022 tightening cycle.