WTI Rebounds to $92–94 from Crash Lows; Market Skepticism About Hormuz 'Fully Open' Claims Undermines Inflation Relief

After crashing 9.6% on April 17 to ~$85.57/bbl on Iran FM Araghchi's declaration that the Strait of Hormuz is 'fully open' to commercial traffic, WTI crude oil rebounded to ~$92–94/barrel over the April 19 weekend — recovering roughly $7–9 from the crash low. Brent crude climbed back toward $98/bbl. The rapid reversal reflected market skepticism about whether the Hormuz reopening was genuine and sustained: a CNBC report from April 16 had noted the Strait was 'still blocked with US-Iran talks uncertain,' and even the April 7 full ceasefire announcement had been followed by weeks of fragility. The oil recovery materially undermines the inflation relief narrative: if WTI stabilizes at $92–94 rather than $85, the near-term CPI benefit for the FOMC's April 29–30 decision is significantly reduced. Energy was the primary driver of the March 2026 CPI surge to 3.3% (gas +21.2%, largest monthly jump since 1967). Goldman Sachs CPI peak forecast remains June 2026 at 3.5–4.0%. JPMorgan optimistically projects CPI retreats in the second half, contingent on Hormuz staying open.