FOMC Countdown: 11 Days to April 29-30 Stagflation Decision; Powell's Chair Term Expires May 15

With 11 days until the FOMC April 29-30 meeting, markets are caught between two competing signals: the rapid oil price decline (WTI -9.6% on April 17 to ~$86, potentially reducing near-term CPI) and the stubborn underlying inflation picture (core PCE 3.06%, 60 consecutive months above 2% target, year-ahead inflation expectations at 4.8% per Michigan survey). The Fed faces a classic stagflation trap: headline inflation driven by an exogenous energy shock is now easing, but core inflation and inflation expectations remain elevated. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term as Chair expires May 15, 2026 — creating political uncertainty about succession that could affect Fed independence perceptions and Treasury market stability. The Washington Post reported that the Trump administration's delay in naming a successor or re-nominating Powell is creating a potential institutional vacuum at the most critical juncture in US monetary policy since 2022. The FOMC is expected to hold rates at 3.50–3.75%, but guidance language will be critical.