Markets Rally on Iran Ceasefire Signals: S&P +0.7%, Brent Crude Falls to $98.79, 10Y Yield Retreats to ~4.30%

April 1 trading saw a significant risk-on move as signals emerged that the US and Iran were advancing toward a ceasefire framework. Brent crude fell 2.54% to approximately $98.79/barrel — the first time below $100 since early March and a meaningful reversal from the $120 mid-month peak. The S&P 500 gained 0.69% (+45 points), the Dow Jones rose 0.6% (+286 points), and the Nasdaq advanced 0.7% (+233 points). The 10-year Treasury yield retreated further to approximately 4.30%, continuing its pullback from the 4.46% March 28 peak, as lower oil prices reduced near-term inflation fears. Gold rose to approximately $4,748/oz as inflation hedging demand remained elevated even with the oil pullback. Bitcoin reached $68,448. The rally reduced but did not eliminate recession risk: JPMorgan's recession probability remained at 60%, the Conference Board Expectations Index (70.9) was deep in recession-warning territory, and Nike fell 12% on weak consumer-spending guidance — highlighting the divergence between risk-appetite recovery and underlying consumer weakness. Liberation Day's one-year anniversary (April 2) loomed as a symbolic marker with $166 billion in IEEPA tariff revenue under legal threat.