End-of-Month Recession Probability Survey: Moody's 48.6%, Goldman 30%, JPM 35%

As March 2026 concluded, recession probability estimates from major Wall Street institutions reached their highest levels of the year: Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi warned odds were 'creeping toward 50%' at 48.6%; Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month US recession risk to 30%; J.P. Morgan estimated 35%; EY-Parthenon projected 40%; Wilmington Trust at 45%. The broad consensus was that the US economy was near 'stall speed' growth of 1.25–1.75% for H2 2026. Three converging pressures were identified: oil-price inflation from the Iran conflict (crude oil up approximately 49% since late February), ongoing Section 122 tariff pass-through to consumers, and sharply deteriorating consumer sentiment (Michigan final March reading of 53.3, with year-ahead inflation expectations at 3.8%). The normal 12-month recession baseline probability is approximately 20%, meaning current estimates represent a 1.5–2.4x elevation.