US 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 4.46% — Highest Since July 2025

The US 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.46% on March 28 — its highest level since July 2025 — as bond markets fully priced out Federal Reserve rate cuts for 2026 and began pricing a 50% probability of a rate hike by October. The sustained move higher in the long end of the Treasury curve raised the cost of government borrowing and threatened to impose a broader financial tightening on the economy through higher mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, and reduced equity valuations. The primary driver was oil-price inflation from the Iran conflict pushing expected CPI above 3.5% for the coming months, with stagflation — slowing growth alongside rising inflation — emerging as the dominant macro risk scenario.