Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final: 53.3, Year-Ahead Inflation Expectations Jump to 3.8%

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final reading for March 2026 came in at 53.3, revised down from the preliminary 55.5 and below February's 56.6 — one of the lowest consumer confidence readings since the post-COVID reopening cycle. Short-term economic outlook plunged 14% from February, personal finance expectations dropped 10%, and year-ahead inflation expectations surged to 3.8% — the largest single-month increase since April 2025 — as gasoline prices rose sharply amid the Iran conflict. Long-term inflation expectations also rose to 3.2%, a threshold Federal Reserve officials closely monitor as an indicator of inflation 'de-anchoring' from the 2% target. The deterioration underscored growing household stress from the combination of energy price shocks and tariff pass-through.