US GDP Q4 2025 Confirmed at 0.7% — Recession Fears Intensify

BEA data confirmed US real GDP grew just 0.7% in Q4 2025, down sharply from 4.4% in Q3 2025, a 3.7 percentage point deceleration. The slowdown coincides with declining retail sales, weakening business investment, and escalating geopolitical tensions. Recession probability estimates rose to 30–48.6% from major institutions including Goldman Sachs (30%), J.P. Morgan (35%), EY Parthenon (40%), and Moody's Analytics (48.6%). Mark Zandi, Moody's chief economist, stated: 'I'm concerned recession risks are uncomfortably high and on the rise.'