Penn Wharton: US Effective Tariff Rate at 10.3% — Highest Since 1943 Under Section 122

Penn Wharton Budget Model updated its effective tariff rate (ETR) estimate to 10.3% through January 2026. With the replacement of IEEPA tariffs by Section 122 global tariffs, the projected bias-corrected ETR stands at 7.7%. China faces the highest rate at 33.9%; steel and aluminum face 41.1%. Total tariff revenue raised since Jan 2025: $209 billion. USMCA utilization surged to 85% for Canadian and Mexican imports as firms aggressively leveraged rules of origin exemptions.