military high confidence

Russia's Spring 2026 Offensive Stymied: Net Loss of 26 Sq Miles in April as Ukraine Pushes Back

| Ukraine War

ISW data released April 30–May 1, 2026 showed Russian forces suffered a net loss of 26 square miles of Ukrainian territory between March 31 and April 28 — a significant reversal. In the final week alone (April 21–28), Russia lost a net 7 square miles. Ukrainian forces made advances in the Slovyansk and Kostyantynivka directions. Russian offensive operations continued near Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Berestok, and Huliaipole but failed to achieve major breakthroughs. Russia recorded 138 combat clashes on April 30 and 109 on May 1. The result marks a stark reversal from 2025's average of 171 sq miles per month of Russian territorial gains. Russian forces are losing soldiers faster than they can recruit — estimated at ~40,000 per month — with Ukrainian General Staff putting cumulative Russian losses at approximately 1,331,710 by May 1, 2026, including ~1,420 personnel in the prior 24 hours alone.

ISW assessment: Russian spring 2026 offensive stymied with net territorial losses in April
ISW assessment: Russian spring 2026 offensive stymied with net territorial losses in April — ISW / Critical Threats