AIT Director Greene: A Taiwan Strait Conflict Would Exceed World War II's Economic Toll

American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) Director Raymond Greene, the de facto US ambassador, told the 2026 Taipei Security Dialogue — hosted by the MND-funded Institute for National Defense and Security Research — that "beyond the human toll, any conflict across the Taiwan Strait would have a bigger impact on the global economy than the Second World War." Greene argued Taiwan does not need to be able to outright defeat a Chinese invasion to deter one; it only needs to convince Beijing that landing and sustaining a large ground force across roughly 145 km of open water onto heavily urbanized, mountainous terrain would be prohibitively costly, and pointed to lessons Taiwan is drawing from Ukraine and the Middle East on asymmetric warfare, new technology, mission command, and societal resilience. He said the Trump administration has made preserving Indo-Pacific peace a top priority and that the upcoming US-China summit is an opportunity to advance 'strategic stability' that avoids miscalculation, while the US continues to support Taiwan's efforts to enhance its own defense.