Climate Impact Lab: Super El Niño Could Add ~451,000 Heat-Related Deaths by Feb 2027

Climate Impact Lab published a projection of up to 451,000 excess heat-related deaths worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027 attributable to the super El Niño, based on temperature-mortality relationships across 24,378 regions versus a 1996-2025 baseline. Nigeria (31,400), Indonesia (19,300) and Sudan (17,600) top the list. The estimate covers heat deaths only (not fires, floods or food-price effects), and one expert called the figures subjective and questioned their regional distribution.