Cocoa Prices Plunge to 5-Week Low as Ivory Coast Supply Floods Market, Even as El Niño Harmattan Risk Looms

Cocoa futures fell to roughly $5,330-5,386/tonne on Sept. 18 — down about 7% on the day and their lowest level since mid-August — as ICE cocoa inventories climbed to a two-year high of around 3.42 million bags and Ivory Coast's marketing-year shipments reached 2.14 million tonnes through Sept. 13, up 18% year-on-year, signaling an unexpectedly abundant near-term supply. The drop reverses much of this year's El Niño-driven rally, which had carried prices as high as $6,634/tonne on Aug. 27-28 and to $6,290 on Sept. 11. Analysts cautioned the reprieve may be short-lived: El Niño tends to intensify West Africa's dry-season Harmattan winds, which typically arrive around November and can desiccate topsoil and cause cocoa pods to drop prematurely, and Ghana's Cocoa Marketing Company has separately warned 2026/27 production could fall by as much as 38% — nearly double its earlier estimate — citing black pod disease, aging plantations, and pollination failures compounding the emerging drought risk.