ICG: 'Divided Sudan, Elusive Peace' — Quad Push for 3-Month Humanitarian Truce; SAF Resists Ceasefire Conditions

The International Crisis Group published its May 2026 policy brief 'Divided Sudan, Elusive Peace' (B211), assessing the current state of mediation efforts and urging the Quad — composed of the United States, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — to use their collective leverage to push for a 3-month humanitarian truce as a first step toward a permanent ceasefire and civilian-led political transition. The brief documents the structural obstacles to peace: SAF, bolstered by military successes in Khartoum and Kordofan, is increasingly disinclined to accept ceasefire terms it views as freezing an RSF advantage in Darfur; Hemedti's RSF has expressed conditional openness to a truce but refuses to accept preconditions. The Quad-proposed framework envisions a demilitarization buffer in El Fasher, monitored by AU observers, as the anchor for a broader pause. Key obstacles identified by ICG include: the SAF's post-Khartoum recapture maximalism (pursuing total military victory); RSF's refusal to withdraw from Darfur state capitals; the absence of reliable monitors given Sudan's access restrictions; and the Quad's own internal divisions, particularly between the UAE (an RSF backer) and Egypt/Saudi Arabia (SAF sympathizers). Meanwhile, in Washington, Massad Boulos — the Trump administration's senior advisor for Africa — continues to press both parties through separate diplomatic channels. Sudan Tribune's May 2026 reporting on US-led peace talks (article 313347) notes that the US push has so far failed to produce a verifiable ceasefire framework, with SAF refusing any agreement that codifies RSF's presence in Darfur. The ICG brief describes the current moment as 'a narrow window' that could close entirely as SAF's offensive momentum builds through Kordofan.