Sudan War Enters Fourth Year: Analysts Project $34.5B GDP Loss and 34 Million More in Extreme Poverty if Conflict Continues to 2030

Al Jazeera published a major analytical report on May 8, 2026 modeling economic and humanitarian scenarios if Sudan's civil war continues to 2030 or 2033. The report projects cumulative GDP losses of $34.5 billion under a prolonged conflict scenario, with an additional 34 million people pushed into extreme poverty on top of the 28.9 million already acutely food insecure as of April 2026. As Sudan's civil war entered its fourth year following the April 15, 2023 outbreak, analysts cited five compounding structural factors preventing resolution: continued RSF gold revenues estimated at $860 million annually financing the paramilitaries; external weapons supply chains through the UAE-RSF link and Turkey/Iran-SAF links; the collapse of UN-mediated ceasefire efforts since the Jeddah process failed in August 2023; Sudan's exclusion from active African Union mediation due to Hemedti's diplomatic maneuvering; and the humanitarian funding gap, with only 16% of the $2.9 billion 2026 UN appeal funded as of May 2026. The report noted that, absent a decisive military victory or external shock, the most likely near-term scenario is continued attrition warfare with gradual SAF territorial consolidation in the east and north while Darfur and parts of Kordofan remain under RSF control — effectively a low-intensity partition. Sudan's conflict has now displaced 14 million people (more than any other active conflict globally), killed an estimated 150,000+ people, and destroyed the livelihoods of approximately 20 million households.