Somali Future Council Sets Conditions for May 10 Talks — Warns of 'Decisive Measures' If No Deal by May 15

The Council for the Future of Somalia (Golaha Mustaqbalka Soomaaliya) formally set conditions on May 5, 2026 for joining President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's May 10 dialogue in Mogadishu, including the immediate halt of 'one-sided election measures,' suspension of all unilateral election preparations, and establishment of independent neutral mediation. The council — comprising opposition politicians and the leaders of Puntland and Jubbaland states — warned it would take 'decisive and responsible measures to save the unity and existence of the nation's statehood' if no electoral agreement is reached before President Mohamud's term expires on May 15. The Future Council's statement noted that after May 15, Mohamud would be recognized only as 'an ordinary citizen' without constitutional authority. The conditions were released 5 days before the dialogue date and 10 days before the constitutional deadline. International observers — including the UN, EU, UK, and Turkey — have called on all parties to engage constructively with the May 10 framework. Analysts at the International Crisis Group warned that the structural gap between the parties remains vast: the FGS has shown no indication it will suspend the March 2026 constitutional amendments, which the opposition contends were passed without the required quorum of 184 House members and 36 senators (the actual vote was 161 and 34). Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab continues to hold Adan Yabal in Hiiraan Region for Day 16, directly exploiting the governance vacuum created by the constitutional standoff.