Somalia Constitutional Crisis: 25 Days Until Presidential Term Expiry; No Electoral Agreement in Sight

As of April 20, 2026, Somalia's multi-layered constitutional crisis has reached critical depth with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's term expiring in exactly 25 days (May 15). The Federal Parliament's mandate already expired April 14 without elections; Speaker Adan Madobe's unilateral one-year extension was rejected by Puntland, Jubbaland, and the opposition. Puntland formally declared a 'constitutional vacuum' on April 17 and is calling for urgent consultations. No electoral framework has been agreed. The FGS maintains that March 2026 constitutional amendments — which extended terms from 4 to 5 years — are legitimate, a position rejected by federal member states and the opposition Council for the Future of Somalia as lacking the required quorum. Simultaneously, Al-Shabaab seized Adan Yabal on April 19, demonstrating its capacity to exploit political uncertainty. CTC Sentinel analysis from West Point titled 'Somalia at a Crossroads: Resurgent Insurgents, Fragmented Politics, and the Uncertain Future of AUSSOM' describes Somalia's dual crisis as the most dangerous convergence of governance failure and security deterioration since 2021. The combination of an SNA divided by political loyalties, an unresolved constitutional dispute, and Al-Shabaab's demonstrated territorial opportunism creates conditions for significant instability.