FGS Consolidates Baidoa Control; Constitutional Crisis Deepens Ahead of April 14 Mandate Expiry

The Federal Government of Somalia continued to consolidate its hold on Baidoa as acting Southwest State president Ahmed Mohamed Hussein sought to stabilize the administration under federal oversight. However, the political crisis deepened: Parliament's mandate under the 2012 Provisional Constitution expires on April 14, and the presidential term expires May 15. The March 2026 constitutional amendments assert 5-year terms, setting up a potential dueling-constitution crisis in which opposition-aligned states could challenge the legitimacy of any extension. Jubbaland remained hostile to Mogadishu, and Puntland's declaration of independent operation left Somalia's federal architecture in its most fragmented state since 2013. The seizure of Baidoa, while a military success for the FGS, risks creating new clan grievances in Bay Region that could complicate the al-Shabaab counter-offensive.