Day 605 — USMCA Round 1 Concludes With 'Net Positive' but No Concrete Agreements; Round 2 Set for June 16-17 Washington

On May 29, 2026 (Day 605), the first formal USMCA bilateral negotiating round concluded at Mexico's Ministry of Economy in Mexico City after two days of sessions (May 28–29). Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard declared a 'saldo positivo' (net positive), citing a 'constructive environment and frank bilateral dialogue' — but explicitly acknowledged that no concrete written agreements had been signed. Mexican trade negotiators described the sessions as a 'productive exchange of positions' rather than breakthrough dealmaking. KEY OUTCOMES: (1) AUTO RULES OF ORIGIN: The U.S. tabled a proposal requiring that at least 50% of each North American vehicle's value originate specifically from the United States — not just North America — a more restrictive formulation than current USMCA rules that requires 75% North American content. Mexico's team responded that such a requirement would disrupt established supply chains in Monterrey, Saltillo, San Luis Potosí, and Guanajuato. No agreement reached. (2) CHINESE NEARSHORING: Both sides agreed to continue working on an 'economic security framework' to address U.S. concerns about Chinese manufacturing investment in Mexico being used to access USMCA zero-tariff treatment — but no enforcement mechanism was defined in Round 1. (3) STEEL AND ALUMINUM: Mexico reiterated its demand for elimination of U.S. Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs; U.S. side offered 'review mechanisms' without concrete timelines. EBRARD ASSESSMENT: Economy Secretary Ebrard confirmed publicly that the pace of Round 1 makes a clean 16-year USMCA extension by the July 1, 2026 Joint Review deadline 'unlikely' — a provisional agreement extending talks is the more probable outcome. SCHEDULE CONFIRMED: Round 2 is set for June 16–17 in Washington D.C. (agriculture, labor standards, 'level playing field'); Round 3 for the week of July 20 in Mexico City (final consolidation ahead of July 1 deadline). USTR.gov issued a formal statement confirming the conclusion of Round 1 and the Round 2 schedule.