US-Iran Deal Remains Unsigned Day 3 Post-Tentative Agreement; Hormuz Blocked Week 14; Lebanon Political Track June 2–3 Approaches

May 31, 2026 — Three days after CNN confirmed a 'tentative agreement' between the US and Iran (May 28), President Trump has not formally signed or announced a 'final determination' on the deal. CNBC reported on May 29 that Trump ended a White House meeting on Iran without issuing a final decision, despite VP Vance acknowledging just a day earlier that only 'a couple of language points' remained unresolved. IRGC General Rezaei escalated on May 30 with a warning that Iran would 'attack the blockade' if Trump betrays the tentative agreement. The Strait of Hormuz remains physically closed on May 31 — approximately 750 vessels trapped, approximately $6B/month in Iranian oil exports blocked, and US gasoline prices holding at approximately $4.48/gallon entering their 14th week of closure. The 60-day MOU framework (Phase 1: mines cleared, Hormuz reopens, US lifts blockade, Iran oil sales resume; Phase 2: nuclear talks on enrichment suspension and HEU removal) remains the baseline. Pakistan Army Chief Gen. Asim Munir continues as the principal back-channel intermediary. The congressional opposition bloc (52 senators, 177 House members) continues to constrain Trump's domestic room to formally announce a deal permitting enrichment. The Lebanon-Israel political track (Round 4) is scheduled for June 2–3 in Washington — the next critical milestone for the Lebanon ceasefire process, with the 45-day extension (in force since May 17) counting down toward its ~June 29 expiry. The Ukraine-Russia June 2 Istanbul Round 2 — proposed after the Rubio-Lavrov meeting on May 29 — is now tomorrow, with a 1,200-for-1,200 prisoner exchange reportedly in the works but ceasefire prospects assessed as low.